How to Read the Signs of Economic Change-Before They Impact Your Business and Investments
Economic and stock-market cycles affect companies in every industry. Unfortunately, a confusing array of anecdotal and conflicting indicators often renders it impossible for managers and investors to see where the economy is heading in time to take corrective action.
Now, a thirty-five-year Wall Street veteran unveils a new forecasting method that will help managers and investors understand and predict the economic cycles that control their businesses and financial fates. In Ahead of the Curve, Joseph H. Ellis argues that the problem with current forecasting models lies not in the data, but rather in the lack of a clear framework for putting the data in context and reading it correctly. The book explains critical economic indicators in nontechnical language, identifies and documents the recurring cause-and-effect relationships that consistently predict turning points in the economy, and provides the tools managers and investors need to position themselves ahead of cyclical upturns and downturns.
Economic events are not as random and unpredictable as they seem. This book will help readers recognize and react to signs of change that their rivals don't see-and win a sizeable competitive advantage.
Customer Reviews:
Avg. Customer Rating: 4.5 / 5.0
Excellent Book on Consumer Retail Economics:
Very will written book on consumer retail economics.. I would recommend it if you are looking to forecast consumer behavior, as a PM or retail business owner
You do not need a PhD:
To the reviewer who so proudly holds a PhD from MIT and who criticized the author for failing to provide the reader with a model that should unlock all forecasting mysteries. I would like to remind him that the author never claimed that's what he was trying to do with his book? Unless you were reading a different book? But for those interested in a fresh, exciting way to revisit past possible failures in forecasting, especially which variables used versus which ones we ought to look at, then this is a... more info
The missing piece for people focused on Technical Analysis:
This is an excellent book on the economics that drive the stock market. This is not a casual read, this book is meant to be studied. Once you get the concepts in the book (real wages drives consumer spending, consumer spending drives the market) you have to download data from various Govt. web sites to keep your own data up to date. Ellis has a site for this book but the last time the charts were updates was on January 2008. You have to keep the data updated monthly. There was a big down turn in... more info
Excellent non-technical primer of stock market behavior:
We all want to have as much data as possible when investing in the stock market, but we want to also spend our efforts efficiently. Joseph Ellis gives us an outstanding framework to understand how we can take common, public data and create ways to track the broad market. Ellis places a very high emphasis on consumer spending, which is not a surprise given that he was Goldman Sachs' lead retail analyst for many years. Without going into significant detail, Ellis shows how a single economic indicator -... more info
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